IMLA members predict a challenging year ahead
The Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA) has forecast that gross mortgage lending for 2012 will be no more than £130 billion - down from the likely £138 billion in 2011.
This is slightly lower that the Council of Mortgage Lenders’ figure of £133 billion.
A survey conducted in December with members of IMLA - the industry body for lenders who market their products primarily through intermediaries - showed variations in opinion.
By the end of 2012 IMLA members expect inflation to fall within a range of 2% to 4%, the average view being 2.79%.
Some members expect a recession with GDP at -2% and others were more positive at +1.5%, but on average the economy will continue to be sluggish with GDP at 0.91%. Unemployment levels are set to remain high.
Peter Williams, IMLA executive director, said: “The survey results may look negative but represent a realistic outlook for the year ahead and remind us that we are still in very challenging times for the economy.
“The mortgage market remains very limited which is why intermediaries can play such an important role to help inform consumers about the best products available and what is right for them.
“Matching lenders and products to consumers is crucial to ensure sustainable lending and improve the market. Council of Mortgage Lenders’ figures show that intermediaries accounted for nearly two thirds of sales; 64% of first-time buyer loans, 57% of remortgage loans and 52% of home mover loans, during the third quarter of 2011.”
Although the next year might look gloomy, the five year view from IMLA members is more optimistic. By 2016 members are expecting base rates to have risen to 2.83% and the average price of a UK home to be around £178,300. This compares with November 2011 where the average price was around £163,000, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders.
IMLA members are confident that the role of the intermediary will remain important and expect intermediaries to hold 59% of the first-time buyer market, 60% of the remortgage market, 51% of the home mover market and 82% of the buy-to-let market by 2016.
